NFLProPicker – Picks Strategy

Using the NFLProPicker software to come up with winners against the spread is not the traditional way that NFL enthusiasts make their weekly selections. To fully understand the complexity and details that are involved in the process, we outline the 10 major steps that the NFLProPicker team goes througth each and every week of the NFL season. Where applicable, each step is accompanied by screenshot(s) from the actual software programs.

STEPS Needed to Make Winning Picks

• STEP 1: Set up the match-ups for the upcoming week

• STEP 2: Compile all the currents stats based on just-completed weekly games

• STEP 3: Update the spreadsheets for the NFLProPicker Analytics product

• STEP 4: Compile the picks of all the applicable expert pickers

• STEP 5: Enter and compile both 3rd party power rankings and our own stats-based rankings

• STEP 6: Use the software to import the statistics and expert picker data into the database

• STEP 7: Compute the "Chance of Winning" (CW) values for each game

• STEP 8: Start with the computed CW values to determine "Preferred Wager" (PW) values

• STEP 9: Adapt PW values to consider applicable game spreads and lines

• STEP 10: Post the scores and use the most current data to execute on-going "what if" analysis

STEP 1: Set up the match-ups for the upcoming week (Thursday through Monday, or variations thereof).

• using the above screen, pre-loaded and automatically updated games are checked
• the program checks the results of the previous week's games and other information in order to update the win/loss records of the expert pickers
• the database is prepared to accommodate up-coming weekly routines described in subsequent steps

STEP 2: Compile all the current statistics based on the just-completed weekly games and run the computerized routines that rate and rank every NFL team in each of the 10 major statistical cetegories.

• the above image is an extract of one of NFLProPicker's statistical categories, namely Performance in the Red Zone
• note that each of the 32 NFL teams is first rated via comprehensive calculations that look at a composite of offensive and defensive performances
• teams are then ranked within the population

STEP 3: Update the spreadsheets for the NFLProPicker Analytics product and generate a text file for importing into the database as described in a later step.

• the above image is an example of 1 of the 10 NFLProPicker statistics spreadsheets that rate and rank the strength of all 32 NFL teams
• the 10 statistical categories appear on the tabs at the bottom of the image
• the overall performance is calculated and plays a key role in determining the NFLProPicker stats-based power rankings

STEP 4: Compile the picks of all the expert pickers used by the NFLProPicker software. Note that the model is always being strengthened by adding new pickers when appropriate.

• the above screen supports the input of specific picks for the straight-up and against-the-spread pickers
• behind the scenes, the program keeps track of the performance of each picker and uses the input of only the "top producers"

• one of the keys to maximizing the usefulness of the input received from third-party sources is to have a large database of pickers
• the above screen supports the addition of new sources and individual pickers linked to each source.
• new sources are found in newspapers, newspaper web sites, handicappers' picks, radio and TV sports talk shows and a variety of miscellaneous web sites

STEP 5: Enter and compile 3rd party power rankings and our own stats-based rankings.

• the above screen supports the inputting of the weekly rankings from 5 of the leading sources
• the program then creates an average ranking for each team and it is that value that plays a role in determining which team is most likely to win a given game
• to complement these somewhat subjective third-party power rankings, NFLProPicker calculates rankings based solely on performance statistics (see below)

STEP 6: Use the NFLProPicker software to import the statistics and expert picks into the database -- this includes supplementary statistical information, the NFLProPicker stats-based power rankings and the 'default', 'stats' and 'scoring' game spreads.

• the above sreen is used to import a variety of data into the NFLProPicker database
• imported data includes performance stats, opening default spreads, lines, team power rankings and expert picks
• picks include straight-up and against-the-spread, both of which play key roles in selecting winners

STEP 7: Compute the "Chance of Winning" (CW) values for each game in order to determine the preliminary expected winners based on the 'default' spread.

• the above screen supports a comprehensive review of individual match-ups and provides the viewer with a thorough understanding of why a particular team is favored to win
• clicking of the command button labeled "Update Game Data" invokes the processing of raw data
• the clicking of the command button labeled "Overview Display" invokes the display of a summary screen of weekly match-ups (see below)

• the above screen gives the first view of which games can be considered good wager candidates
• note that the higher the Chance of Winning (CW), the more likely the designated winner will become a wager opportunity

STEP 8: Carry the CW values to a second tier of program routines where other important factors are considered and the "Preferred Wager" (PW) factors are determined.

• the above screen illustrates the PW factors that have been generated following analysis of additional data with CW values serving as starting points
• the PW factors were found to be more reliable indicators of a team's chance of winning against the spread
• the program also determines the PW threshold value above which the best success rate is achieved (the threshold is 55.8 in the sample screen above)

STEP 9: Compute the PW winners with reference to actual handicapper spreads and lines and transfer the information to applicable customer viewing areas on approved NFLProPicker reseller sites.

• the above screen shows the 'reconciliation' between the opening CW values and the ending PW value for individual match-ups

• by clicking on the "Spread/Line What-If Analysis" button on the top screen, one can determine what spread and line combination produces a 'betable' game as shown on the screen just above
• the above image supports the monitoring of current spreads and lines right up to game time for individual  match-ups

STEP 10: Post the scores and use the most current data to execute on-going "what-if' analysis.

• information provided by the "what-if" analysis screen shown above is used to update the validity and integrity of future allocation factors
• this powerful tool provides a means by which NFLProPicker can test all possible allocation values of stats and expert picker categories in order to determine optimum allocation percentages as the data base expands

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