Frequently Asked Questions

Click on the questions below to reveal the answers.

A. Delivery and Support Issues

1. Who is most likely to want the NFLProPicker flagship product?
   The NFLProPicker solution has been designed to be of benefit to NFL fans who participate in one or more football pools and/or who like to make wagers (online or otherwise) on NFL games. If you want to decide in a logical and thoughtful manner which team is most likely to win a given match-up (and the associated chances of that happening), then the NFLProPicker solution was made for you.
2. What exactly is delivered to me when I purchase the NFLProPicker product?
   Every week of the current NFL regular season and playoff s a report entitled "NFLProPicker Preferred Wagers" will be delivered. It will give all the current week's match-ups and the default spread (normally the spread made public early in the game week). Games will be reported as 'Guaranteed Winners' (refundable fees if purchased weekly and losses exceed winners), 'Betable' (if certain spreads are attained) or 'Not Recommended' (for wagers).
3. What are the major differences between picks made by NFLProPicker and those made by other vendors?
   Other vendors typically offer a solution that falls into one of the three following categories:

   • software for which the user is required to find and enter raw data that is manipulated by the program
   • delivery of raw data (performance stats for example) to the customer -- this data must be examined and manipulated by the user relying on his own insight in order to arrive at logical conclusions (not a trivial undertaking!)
   • straight picks with no significant input as to what logic (if any) went into the selection(s)

   NFLProPicker is unique in the fact that it is actually a combination of all three approaches. The customer benefits from:

   • a program that has the "smarts" to determine logic-based conclusions
   • weekly data based on current results -- data that plays a key role in the program's analysis process
   • concise team picks that are assigned percentage chance of winning (CW) factors behind the scenes.
   • additional analysis and data manipulation which leads to weekly Preferred Wager (PW) reports

B. Product Options and Development Issues

1. Are there less expensive NFLProPicker purchase options that “zero-in” on the statistical side of the software only?
   Yes, the developers realized that some users may be interested in the statistics only and want to benefit from the research done by the NFLProPicker staff in narrowing down the abundance of available stats to those that are the most relevant. But NFLProPicker has gone one step further. Statistics for all 32 NFL teams are compiled during the season and year to date values are analytically ranked within the group of 32 teams in each of 10 major statistical areas. The name of this product is called NFLProPicker Analytics.
   
   The developers also understood that some users may be interested in ranking all 32 teams based on a composite of all the statistical areas and then calculate Preference values. Such values (from 16 to 1 if there is a full slate of weekly games) are useful for those participating in Straight-up Preference pools. This product can be viewed each week free of charge on the web site of authorized resellers and on this web site. A further free statistically-based product can also be viewed weekly on the reseller site -- named NFLProPicker Power Rankings.
2. Can you tell me about the developers and where the idea of NFLProPicker came from?
   The primary developers are twin brothers who share a passion for NFL football and for using their shared apptitude for determining logic-based answers to any problem that presents itself. It is not surprising that chess was their main non-sports-related activity when growing up.
   
   One brother has a proven track record in the development of application software designed to solve real problems for real people. His passion for following NFL football and selecting winners for the many pools in which he participated, led to the development of an informal automated tool for tracking and using the selections of expert pickers found on the Internet, in papers and on radio and TV talk shows.
   
   The second brother, in his capacity as a professional accountant and financial analyst, was more inclined to use large and somewhat complex spreadsheets to track team performance statistics. "Return on investment" or "success in the red zone" -- both are based on available statistics and both play a key role in making an informed decision in a particular area of interest.
3. Have the developers of the NFLProPicker program created any other software?
   The principals of Yager & Associates have been developing computer software for over 40 years -- but only in the past 12 years for sale on the Internet. Their most widely-distributed product is called "CaddieMasterPro" and is an award-winning program used for tracking golf scores and performance statistics. This program was voted "best of its kind" by Golf Magazine. Learn more about this program by going to www.CaddieMaster.com.

C. Issues Linked to Performance Statistics

1. The team performance statistics obviously play a key role in the determination of a team's chance of winning a game. Can you tell me a little about the approach used?
   The exact details of the formulas are proprietary and took 3 NFL seasons to develop. However, here are the basic concepts that make the NFLProPicker approach different from other approaches:

   • Football is riddled with statistics -- NFLProPicker first had to empirically determine those that were the most relevant
   • For those selected, values are assigned to all of the 32 NFL teams based on their relative rankings in the group
   • For each weekly match-up, the rankings of the two opposing teams are compared
   • Finally, for "against the spread" games, weighting factors per team are calculated based on the games’ point spreads
2. There seem to be so many performance stats available. Which ones are used by NFLProPicker and why were they selected?
   Well, it was certainly a moving target. Extensive testing in real-world game situations was conducted before the NFLProPicker development team finalized the list that follows. The team is now satisfied that the current list covers all major facets of the game and includes those stats that significantly influence final outcomes. In addition, the research has convinced the developers that the NFLProPicker default stats allocation percentages fairly represent the relative importance of each factor.
   
   Here are the statistical factors that have been determined to be the most relevant and what they encompass:

   • Win/Loss record – composite of: overall, in conference, in division, after bye-week, home and awa
   • Scoring Differential – net of points scored and points given up
   • First Downs and Time of Possession – composite formula of first downs and time of possession
   • Ball Control Pass – number of offensive passing plays and total yards of one team versus its opponent’s defence
   • Ball Control Rush – number of offensive rushing plays and total yards of one team versus its opponent’s defence
   • Red Zone Success – offensive strength of one team versus defensive strength of its opponent
   • Kick Returns -- yards made by the receiving team and given up by the kicking team, for both kickoffs and punts
   • Penalty Avoidance – number of penalties and total yards given up
   • Turnover Differential – net of turnovers and takeaways, including fumbles and interceptions
   • Sacks For and Against – sacks made by one team versus sacks allowed by its opponent
3. How does NFLProPicker account for performance statistics at the beginning of the season when no “regular season” games have yet been played?
   To begin, NFLProPicker does not apply any weight to statistics emanating from exhibition games -- games for which the primary focus is to make roster decisions.

   Performance statistics for the first game of the current season are based on stats compiled in the last 7 games of the preceding season. Your next question may be, "why 7 games?" – there are 2 reasons:

   • all the teams’ bye-weeks are completed by week 11 and therefore all 32 teams played every week up to end of the prior season (weeks 11 to 17) and can be evaluated on common ground
   • from a statistical point of view, there are enough games per team (7 games) and enough overall (112 games) to draw meaningful statistical conclusions

   Of course, the problem is that things happen in the off season, principally personnel changes such as:

   • player movements due to salary cap considerations
   • draft picks and free agency pick-ups
   • player trades and retirements
   • changes in management and coaching staff

   To recognize these situations, NFLProPicker applies a moving statistical average. Once a few games have been played in the current season, the least recent game from the prior season is replaced with the most recent current season game. After the current season is well under way, all the prior season games will have been eliminated from the calculations.

4. What role does the spread play in determining which team is likely to win a game?
   This is a good question because the spread itself is an indicator of which team is likely to win. The spread is a reflection of performance statistics as well as discretionary issues, such as injuries to key players and the "sitting" of key players in order to rest them for playoff games. But, most of all, it is a handicapper's view of which team will win and by how much for the purpose of placing bets on one team or the other when they are involved in a specific NFL game match-up.
   
   The developers of NFLProPicker adjust the various statistical rankings of the two teams in an "Against the Spread" match-up based on a proprietary formula that has been empirically developed over time. As concerns "Straight-up" predictions, the spread is displayed and is of interest but is not required in calculations because raw statistical team rankings stand on their own unadjusted merit. In more cases than not, the team that is favored to win according to the spread is also the team that NFLProPicker will choose as the one most likely to be the outright winner.

D. Issues Linked to Discretionary Input

1. The inclusion of “discretionary input” seems somewhat inconsistent with the basic NFLProPicker premise of a “logic based” approach. Am I right?
   Yes, your premise has some merit. In fact, the developers of NFLProPicker agree to the extent that discretionary input seldom plays a role in determining a team's chances of winning. However, a few legitimate situations do arise. The results of games near the end of the regular season are sometimes difficult to analyze because key players for well-positioned teams are rested in preparation for the playoffs. Also, unforeseen situations like bad weather and last-minute injuries to key players can become issues.
   
   The developers of NFLProPicker have found that in the process of acquiring and manipulating stats and picks, they acquire a "feeling" for situations that require discretionary adjustments. The developers do not want to deny their users the benefit of this insight.

   Thus, in summary, the situation is as follows:

   • discretionary input is more subjective than NFLProPicker developers would like
   • but, some situations really do require the use of "savvy" rather than "numbers"
   • the actual impact of such situations is that less than 5% of all games played are affected
   • the typical result of applying a discretionary adjustment is that the status of a game that would have been defined as "betable" becomes "not recommended" as a wagering opportunity